For the past several months, the consensus here in Washington, DC has been that “the vibes are bad.” Something about the 2024 election and its aftermath seemed totalizing: the chainsaw of DOGE, the brash triumphalism of the MAGA “cool kids,” the unexpected efficiency with which Trump 2.0 began to run its policy playbook, and the obvious exhaustion of the Democratic “resistance” in the face of it all.
Recently, though, it feels like the winds have changed. I think I’m sensing a vibe shift. I know, I know, the term is very 2022. But I’m not sure how else to describe this not-quite fact-based feeling that Trump and the MAGA movement are maybe losing just a bit of their grip on the nation.
A few examples:
DOGE is officially dead eight months ahead of schedule, and no one seems particularly proud of what it did. Even the Silicon Valley superstars who once worked for DOGE are being reassigned to what frankly seems like menial work (much-lauded AirBnB founder Joe Gebbia is now on website beautification duty). The grip of fear DOGE had on much of the capital seems to be slowly loosening.
The Epstein files haven’t faded, and seem capable of causing real rifts in the MAGA movement, even among previous diehards (witness Marjorie Taylor Greene’s very public feud with Trump and her subsequent resignation). Congressional Republicans are becoming restive, where their fealty to Trump (or fear of being primaried) once kept them entirely in line.
Speaking of staying in line: The Heritage Institute, responsible just months ago for the well-oiled execution of the Trump agenda, is tearing itself apart. Nick Fuentes, Tucker Carlson, Groyperism and anti-Semitism have thrown the MAGA power establishment (itself only recently solidified) into disarray.
And speaking of disarray, Democrats seem to finally be… pulling it together? At least a few of them? Liberal senators are mutinying against an ineffective Chuck Schumer. Zohran Mamdani is outflanking the establishment in New York and defanging the White House. He and the wide slate of recent Democratic midterm successes are gaining ground by focusing on economic issues instead of culture war, a long-overdue correction that will yield dividends as…
Inequality and economic stagnation have become undeniable — even among Trump supporters and especially among those moderates who tipped the election to him in hopes of economic gain. The tariffs were roundly disliked, even Laura Ingraham thinks the 50-year mortgage sounds dumb, and financial analysts are eying the stock market with newfound skepticism as the “AI bubble” continues to trip alarms.
The MAGA coalition never totally made sense; after the post-election honeymoon period, the cracks were bound to show. And Trump is entering his lame duck era — despite Steve Bannon’s continued insinuations, a third term is extremely unlikely for both legal and actuarial reasons. And so, Trump’s grip on the Republican party must loosen, and the party — a motely crew held together by the ultimate personality hire, who will soon retire— will begin to disintegrate. Perhaps it already has.
It’s possible that I’m overoptimistic. Maybe I’m clutching at glimmers as we enter a season of hope. Still, it’s a welcome change — a good vibe, at least for now.
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I definitely agree that there’s a counter vibe shift. Please excuse this, but I predict “woke 2”
Large demographic movements take decades to play out. Trump is the US is just the American expression of a global populist movement.
The underlying dynamic is the growing gulf between the top 25% of earners versus the middle class. There is significant disagreement among liberal elites on issues like "Defund the Police", transgenderism, and illegal immigration versus the rest of the country. I don't think it's realistic to expect those deep cultural divisions to resolve overnight.
Further complicating matters for liberals in the US is the normal thermostatic movement of American politics. Barack Obama took a "shellacking" in the 2010 midterms. Bill Clinton saw a historic realignment in 1994. Trump lost the House in 2018, as did Joe Biden in 2022. George W. Bush saw his reckoning delayed due to the 9/11 effect, but he would eventually lose Congress as well. It's simply normal for American voters to react against the party in power. The danger for Democrats is that they mistakenly interpret the normal midterm losses of the dominant party as something more significant: note that despite those midterm reversals, Obama, Clinton, Bush and Trump all went on to win second terms.