Welcome to CrowdSource, your weekly guided tour of the latest intellectual disputes, ideological disagreements and national debates that piqued our interest (or inflamed our passions). This week: qualified support, and strong opposition to, US intervention in Venezuela.
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Venezuela’s External and Internal Conflicts
A gathering storm:
“The US is Preparing for War in Venezuela,” reports the Atlantic:
The U.S. hasn’t sent this many ships to the Caribbean since the Cuban missile crisis. There are already roughly 6,500 Marines and sailors in the region, operating from eight Navy vessels, as well as 3,500 troops nearby. Once the Ford arrives, the U.S. will have roughly as many ships in the Caribbean as it used to defend Israel from Iranian missile strikes this summer. The carrier strike group also provides far more firepower than is necessary for the occasional attack on narco-trafficking targets. But the ships could be ideal for launching a steady stream of air strikes inside Venezuela.
“Difficult to Deny.” This crisis is happening in the wake of fraudulent presidential elections in July 2024; as journalist
describes it:
This situation is unprecedented. In 25 years of Chavismo, Venezuela has seen the regime employ an array of electoral tricks to tilt the playing field in its favor. The list of abuses is extensive and includes vote suppression, assisted voting, banning candidates, restricting media access, coopting opposition parties, and using massive public funds for campaigning. Maduro did many of these things this year too. Yet this is the first time the regime has ever stolen a presidential election that it had been expected to lose badly, fabricating numbers out of thin air without any supporting evidence. The fraud has never been so large, conspicuous, and difficult to deny.
Trump’s casus belli has to do with drug trafficking and oil, not the restoration of Venezuelan democracy. But Venezuelan opposition to Maduro’s regime is a crucial piece to this brewing war.
Give Regime Change a Chance
Many in the Venezuelan opposition support regime change:
Data. A recent poll conducted by the London-based firm Panterra indicates that most Venezuelans want Maduro out.
Peace Through Strength. Earlier this month, the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to Maria Corina Machado, a Venezuelan opposition leader who supports US-led efforts to oust Maduro — though she has not said she supports military action.
Not Pro-Trump, But Anti-Maduro. New York-based Venezuelan activist and novelist
explains the pro-military action perspective:
Or, as he puts it in writing:
Nobody wants innocent bloodshed … but if an extraction akin to what happened with Manuel Noriega in 1989 were to occur — an act the Panamanian population thought was overwhelmingly positive at the time — the world can be certain that no matter the consequences, many Venezuelans would celebrate having Maduro out of office.
Progressives Should Support Machado. Another Venezuelan writer, Alejandro Daly, while not calling for regime change, laments the lack of progressive support for Maria Corina Machado:
Right now, massive human rights violations are being committed in Venezuela. Crimes against humanity are being perpetrated. Activists, journalists, families, and even children are persecuted, kidnapped, and tortured. Meanwhile, progressive leaders around the globe are silent on these crises, or worse, they’re taking photos with Maduro.
War Is a Bad Idea
Three arguments against war with Venezuela.
“Regime Change in Venezuela is Bad for America.”
opposes war for several reasons, including that it would not do much for Trump’s war on drugs:
… production of lethal drugs in [Venezuela] is virtually nonexistent. It acts largely as a transit country for 13 percent of Colombian cocaine at most. Trump has claimed that each of the boats bombed in the Caribbean is responsible for the deaths of 25,000 Americans. But virtually all overdoses in the United States are from fentanyl, which neither Venezuela nor Colombia produce. Even if they did, so long as many Americans remain addicted to an inelastic product like lethal drugs, no military actions will make a meaningful difference in reducing the number of overdoses.
Quagmire In the Making.
argues that the US might fail in Venezuela:
American military power is in a state of decline that will require a decade or more to reverse. … In Washington, DC, there is never a shortage of sycophantic, blowhard generals and admirals whose own experience with real war is at best at a cocktail level of familiarity. […] Before President Trump and his cabinet decide to begin a new conflict with Venezuela, the deficit Trump should worry most about is intellectual, not fiscal.
“Venezuela Will Be No Panama.” Against the argument that a Venezuelan intervention would be quick and easy, as the 1989 Panamanian one is said to have been, historian Dennis M. Hogan writes:
Venezuela is a sprawling, geographically diverse country with a population of nearly 30 million. The United States maintains no military installations there, and it is not home to a strategic asset like the Panama Canal, unless you include oil reserves. Venezuela’s neighbors Colombia and Brazil have been at odds with the Trump administration. As policy analysts across the political spectrum have argued, the likeliest outcome of a U.S. invasion that topples Mr. Maduro is a surge in regional instability, and, according to a recent report by the Stimson Center, a worsening of the conditions leading to drug trafficking, conflict and migration.
Turning Points in Latin America
Elsewhere in Latin America:
How Freedom Dies.
on how democracies fall apart without a dictator:
The recent history of Peru and several other Latin American democracies including Brazil, Colombia and Mexico shows there is another, even more insidious way freedom can die for large parts of society: when the state is unable or unwilling to constrain predatory private powers — narco-traffickers, illegal gold miners, human smugglers, corruption rackets — and the officials and politicians who go into business with them.
Latino USA.
on why the US should be considered a Latin American country:
Eventually, even the most loyal Hispanic Trump voter (and there are many of them; Trump almost won the Hispanic vote) will see that Trump’s tough-on-immigration stance, however justifiable in their eyes, is fuelled by an ideology that ignores the Hispanic roots of the United States. It is an ideology that sees the US as a nation state like Greece or Ireland, rather than a polyglot entity like Belgium or Canada, or the raucous, world-straddling empire that it really is.
Culture War Exports. Writer
reports on Peruvian Charlie Kirk fans:
Local memes and national algorithmic bubbles — these are the exceptions that confirm the rule: you could spend your whole life online without ever once learning about the social mores of the Latin American internet, but good luck escaping the next J.D. Vance controversy or the latest Taylor Swift release. So America’s culture war seeps into the water and reappears, slightly mutated, down south.
From the Crowd
’s piece, “Assisted Suicide is Barbaric,” inspired a lot of responses. It’s a personal and painful topic, and all of the responses are worth reading. Here’s a few:“Enlightened Social Policy.” From the handle
, a New Mexico lawmaker who sponsored a pro-assisted suicide bill:
I was a NM State Rep who carried the bill allowing Medical Aid In Dying in our state. I was passionately for it then and remain a strong supporter. You can read about the process, my own story, and the stories of other involved, here.
I say that to say this: You say that the process is “barbaric.” I would counter that making people live in pain, knowing that they are at the end of their life, is worse than barbaric. It is torture and having the option to end your life peacefully and surrounded by loved ones is a more civilized pathway for an enlightened community. Furthermore, at the end of the day, if I get into a situation like the ones in law, this should be my call. No government or church should have the ability to say no should I make the decision for my own life. Again, that is barbarism, not enlightened social policy.
“A Dangerous Premise.” Wisdom of Crowds contributor
wrote a searching response on his own Substack:
[…] Discussing assisted suicide may therefore be helpful. It may enable societies to have a genuine discussion over the purpose of life. The common phrase ‘living my best life’ is so routinely said that it has been stripped of all meaning. If we want to really limit access to assisted suicide, we should interrogate deeply why that is, beyond the mere boundaries of the sacral, but into something much more human.
Experience.
shares a personal story:
I, and my brother and our wives, said goodbye to my mother a month ago. She had for years been consistent that when a good life was no longer possible and the end was near, she wanted to skip the pain and confusion and look to whatever came next with clear eyes. […]
A Prediction, from
:
Within fifteen years it will be unlawful to keep anyone alive if they have certain defined medical conditions, killing them will be mandatory because of the risk that they will impose undue financial costs on the machine.
See you next week!
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On Venezuela, I just want to recommend an excellent book, 'Things Are Never So Bad That They Can't Get Worse: Inside the Collapse of Venezuela', written by William Neuman.
I would love to hear a podcast episode debating the situation in Venezuela and the degrees to which varying levels of US intervention would/would not be positive.