Thanks for recommending a reading of the Hama Manifesto. It is quite the trip through the looking glass into Hamas's 'Wonderland.' There is a reason that Palestinians are 'personas non grata' throughout the region and the rise of Islamist extremism.
"Here, we remind that the Jewish problem in essence was a European problem, while the Arab and Islamic environment was – across history – a safe haven to the Jewish people and to other peoples of other beliefs and ethnicities. The Arab and Islamic environment was an example to co-existence, cultural interaction and religious freedoms."
It seems the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem, Amin al-Husseini, hung out with Mussolini and Hitler crafting fascism for the Arab World giving rise to the Egyptian Brotherhood, al-Qaeda, lSIS, Taliban, etc., and leading up to Hama's well-earned terrorist designation. https://johnhardman.substack.com/p/hitlers-grand-mufti
1) Any above-ground army that lost 20-30% of its soldiers (not to mention innumerable family members, since homes are being targeted) would be at least operationally impaired and very possibly at the point of defeat. Instead, the spin everywhere is that Israel's counteroffensive has failed. Is that because Israel set internal expectations too high or because, against an underground army, the numbers don't apply?
2) Meanwhile, how about them Houthis? For around 50 years (maybe longer?) the US Navy has been has been the "guarantor" of oil and shipping flows in the Gulf and the Red Sea. No formal or informal weapons possessed by Iran or other opponents could match US destroyers (backed by carriers) on the beat.
But this is scary. If the Houthis can fire unlimited $100 drones that US destroyers can only kill with limited $1M missiles, that seems like ominous arithmetic. What if the destroyers have to back off? Can air strikes alone slow the onslaught?
Obviously I don't know what the real numbers and costs are, but I read expressions of concern in the military newsletters.
That's fascinating because I was reacting to a different angle on the same technology. The US Navy seems to have a working laser weapon, but today's trimmed down destroyers' don't have the power sources to run them, among other deficits.
Regarding this section of your comment Damir, I will try to explain why I think Taiwan's declining trust in the US, really, Taiwan's declining complacency and *laziness*, is *not* bad news, no matter how you slice it. Here is the quoted portion:
"a decline in trust among the Taiwanese for the United States.
'As they watch Washington deadlock on military aid for Ukraine and Israel, and try to imagine what the United States would actually do for Taiwan in a crisis, faith in America is plummeting… [O]nly 34 percent of respondents saw the United States as a trustworthy country, down from 45 percent in 2021.'
Your reaction to this kind of news depends on your priors. If you’re a liberal internationalist who believes that progress can only be undergirded by U.S. power, you will weep. If you’re an isolationist, you’ll be pleased. Me, I’m tempted by neither side. Rather, I’m wondering what the world will look like given that America is likely to be unreliable for the foreseeable future."
In my view, declining trust and confidence in Taiwan is simply rising *realism* on the part of Taiwanese and likely to lead to less complacency and laziness on the part of Taiwanese.
If liberal internationalists are weeping about this, they are being dumb, frankly. The Taiwanese if less confident in the US, are likely to get *more* serious about their own self-defensive military capabilities, more willing to make budgetary and social sacrifices for defense, and likely to be *more* careful and restrained in what they say or do in terms of quasi-independence, incremental independence public speech and gestures.. This should improve stability on the margin and reduce what economists call "moral hazard".
The only world in which reduced Taiwanese trust/confidence in the USA could be read as harmful to either liberal internationalism, US interests, or US power would be if confidence cratered so much that it caused Taiwanese political leaders to preemptively surrender their effective sovereignty to Beijing and begin negotiating a real union with the PRC, with military and naval integration, and compromise of DoD technology to the PRC. There is no sign of this happening with the reelection of the DPP President, and no increase to a mass KMT majority or for any of the even more pro-mainland parties on Taiwan.
The US has strategic and economic reasons to care even *more* about Taiwan than Ukraine, and contemplation of direct US involvement has been taken seriously, even assumed, in governing circles in both the USA and China for years, unlike in Ukraine, where the specifics of even a proxy aid program were never worked out in advance and were developed as a reflex on the fly. Even so, the Ukraine experience has only made things better in a strategic sense in the Taiwan strait. While Ukraine diverts US attention/munitions, assets to be employed in each conflict would not generally be the same or fungible, except dollars and fuel. Ukraine has provided an example to Taiwan for how to resist, even without the US joining in the work directly. For logistical, time/distance reasons, even if the US directly intervenes, the Taiwanese would have to be able to do that for a week or two on their own before US forces could arrive in any strength. Ukraine has also provided Beijing an example of how superior forces, plus a superior capacity, plus the expected intimidation that should bring against a much smaller foe, can still fail to get the job done per plan. Your enemy or enemies, still get a vote.
Thanks for recommending a reading of the Hama Manifesto. It is quite the trip through the looking glass into Hamas's 'Wonderland.' There is a reason that Palestinians are 'personas non grata' throughout the region and the rise of Islamist extremism.
"Here, we remind that the Jewish problem in essence was a European problem, while the Arab and Islamic environment was – across history – a safe haven to the Jewish people and to other peoples of other beliefs and ethnicities. The Arab and Islamic environment was an example to co-existence, cultural interaction and religious freedoms."
It seems the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem, Amin al-Husseini, hung out with Mussolini and Hitler crafting fascism for the Arab World giving rise to the Egyptian Brotherhood, al-Qaeda, lSIS, Taliban, etc., and leading up to Hama's well-earned terrorist designation. https://johnhardman.substack.com/p/hitlers-grand-mufti
Just some thoughts on numbers:
1) Any above-ground army that lost 20-30% of its soldiers (not to mention innumerable family members, since homes are being targeted) would be at least operationally impaired and very possibly at the point of defeat. Instead, the spin everywhere is that Israel's counteroffensive has failed. Is that because Israel set internal expectations too high or because, against an underground army, the numbers don't apply?
2) Meanwhile, how about them Houthis? For around 50 years (maybe longer?) the US Navy has been has been the "guarantor" of oil and shipping flows in the Gulf and the Red Sea. No formal or informal weapons possessed by Iran or other opponents could match US destroyers (backed by carriers) on the beat.
But this is scary. If the Houthis can fire unlimited $100 drones that US destroyers can only kill with limited $1M missiles, that seems like ominous arithmetic. What if the destroyers have to back off? Can air strikes alone slow the onslaught?
Obviously I don't know what the real numbers and costs are, but I read expressions of concern in the military newsletters.
Almost included this news item. Doesn't do anything for the current predicament with Houthis. But it suggests the era of cheap drone warfare is coming to an end sooner rather than later. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/advanced-future-military-laser-achieves-uk-first
That's fascinating because I was reacting to a different angle on the same technology. The US Navy seems to have a working laser weapon, but today's trimmed down destroyers' don't have the power sources to run them, among other deficits.
https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2024/01/22/the-us-navy-could-use-some-lasers-on-its-surface-fleet-right-now/
Steven Cook wrote about public opinion in the Middle East here: https://open.substack.com/pub/theliberalpatriot/p/dont-worry-about-the-arab-street?r=3jvyx&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
I think he’s right on his main point. Still, public opinion isn’t a number. Something has changed.
Regarding this section of your comment Damir, I will try to explain why I think Taiwan's declining trust in the US, really, Taiwan's declining complacency and *laziness*, is *not* bad news, no matter how you slice it. Here is the quoted portion:
"a decline in trust among the Taiwanese for the United States.
'As they watch Washington deadlock on military aid for Ukraine and Israel, and try to imagine what the United States would actually do for Taiwan in a crisis, faith in America is plummeting… [O]nly 34 percent of respondents saw the United States as a trustworthy country, down from 45 percent in 2021.'
Your reaction to this kind of news depends on your priors. If you’re a liberal internationalist who believes that progress can only be undergirded by U.S. power, you will weep. If you’re an isolationist, you’ll be pleased. Me, I’m tempted by neither side. Rather, I’m wondering what the world will look like given that America is likely to be unreliable for the foreseeable future."
In my view, declining trust and confidence in Taiwan is simply rising *realism* on the part of Taiwanese and likely to lead to less complacency and laziness on the part of Taiwanese.
If liberal internationalists are weeping about this, they are being dumb, frankly. The Taiwanese if less confident in the US, are likely to get *more* serious about their own self-defensive military capabilities, more willing to make budgetary and social sacrifices for defense, and likely to be *more* careful and restrained in what they say or do in terms of quasi-independence, incremental independence public speech and gestures.. This should improve stability on the margin and reduce what economists call "moral hazard".
The only world in which reduced Taiwanese trust/confidence in the USA could be read as harmful to either liberal internationalism, US interests, or US power would be if confidence cratered so much that it caused Taiwanese political leaders to preemptively surrender their effective sovereignty to Beijing and begin negotiating a real union with the PRC, with military and naval integration, and compromise of DoD technology to the PRC. There is no sign of this happening with the reelection of the DPP President, and no increase to a mass KMT majority or for any of the even more pro-mainland parties on Taiwan.
The US has strategic and economic reasons to care even *more* about Taiwan than Ukraine, and contemplation of direct US involvement has been taken seriously, even assumed, in governing circles in both the USA and China for years, unlike in Ukraine, where the specifics of even a proxy aid program were never worked out in advance and were developed as a reflex on the fly. Even so, the Ukraine experience has only made things better in a strategic sense in the Taiwan strait. While Ukraine diverts US attention/munitions, assets to be employed in each conflict would not generally be the same or fungible, except dollars and fuel. Ukraine has provided an example to Taiwan for how to resist, even without the US joining in the work directly. For logistical, time/distance reasons, even if the US directly intervenes, the Taiwanese would have to be able to do that for a week or two on their own before US forces could arrive in any strength. Ukraine has also provided Beijing an example of how superior forces, plus a superior capacity, plus the expected intimidation that should bring against a much smaller foe, can still fail to get the job done per plan. Your enemy or enemies, still get a vote.
The wisdom of crowds is real and testable and we can fix the whole world with it.
Like this
https://youtu.be/pwNId_vuwPM?si=b9-wA0pCoaz8h_Uc