Shadi, why are you spending all stream insisting that people have reasons for the things they do? Like, yes, of course, we know. There’s no need to defend Oren, Bin Laden, and Putin from accusations that they are literally insane.
How about some of your own thoughts on whether those reasons they say they have are any good, or whether the consequences suggest that those reasons were well-founded?
How about some concrete examples that illustrate why having a reliable hegemon is bad, actually, because it breeds complacency?
Great conversation :) Trump's decision making atm reminds me of Walter Benjamin's critique of sovereigns when he argued the sovereign is ultimately a mortal. They will make mistakes and be dragged down to earth as the man they are. Trump's and other tyrants attempts to elevate themselves just reinforces the notion of failure in the end.
It strikes me that what we're seeing is a genuine beginning of disintegration of expertise in government in the US which is quite terrifying to me. All kinds of institutions are seeing long-time members be made redundant annihilating institutional memory and going on a new unexplored path. Not dissimilar from what Liz Truss tried to do in my own country but was kicked out quickly.
I think even if internally the logic makes sense externally there are realities you rub up against. Looking to history, looking at Lenin he quickly realised he couldn't re-boot the economy nor the state in the way he initially thought. So, he had to change the method, go more slowly and alter his initial idealistic plans. So, I see the tariffs in this way. Re-booting an post-industrial economy and going back simply isn't realistic externally even if it sounds good on paper. It's the road to nowhere, well except perhaps mass bankruptcy.
Also, to be fair, they still large 10% tariffs - which is actually a huge change (the question is how this will affect policy and the economy). It's kind of how Frederick the Great still kept Silesia when all was said and done after the War of Austrian Succession.
One dynamic that you did not cover in detail, I thought, is Trump's confidence in his instincts. Several times he has been advised to be more pragmatic, but again and again he has been proven right (Access Hollywood tape, picking JD as VP pick and so on), and that explains why the bureaucrats around him are "incompetent". In a normal dictatorship, say like Putin, system that ensures everyone in the government prioritizes his rule over everything else, but Putin will still allow experts to run the government. In Trump's case, it looks like he not content with just power. He also seem to think he is uniquely capable of rolling out a detailed policy, which is why we saw the rollout of tariffs that we saw. A good next step for him would be to make a public statement that he has accomplished his personal goal, and going forward Scott Bressent will manage all trade negotiations and the rollout.
Trump's other saving grace might be his ability to adapt and pivot when things don't work out as intended. It'll be interesting to see what he doe now.
Shadi, why are you spending all stream insisting that people have reasons for the things they do? Like, yes, of course, we know. There’s no need to defend Oren, Bin Laden, and Putin from accusations that they are literally insane.
How about some of your own thoughts on whether those reasons they say they have are any good, or whether the consequences suggest that those reasons were well-founded?
How about some concrete examples that illustrate why having a reliable hegemon is bad, actually, because it breeds complacency?
Great conversation :) Trump's decision making atm reminds me of Walter Benjamin's critique of sovereigns when he argued the sovereign is ultimately a mortal. They will make mistakes and be dragged down to earth as the man they are. Trump's and other tyrants attempts to elevate themselves just reinforces the notion of failure in the end.
It strikes me that what we're seeing is a genuine beginning of disintegration of expertise in government in the US which is quite terrifying to me. All kinds of institutions are seeing long-time members be made redundant annihilating institutional memory and going on a new unexplored path. Not dissimilar from what Liz Truss tried to do in my own country but was kicked out quickly.
I think even if internally the logic makes sense externally there are realities you rub up against. Looking to history, looking at Lenin he quickly realised he couldn't re-boot the economy nor the state in the way he initially thought. So, he had to change the method, go more slowly and alter his initial idealistic plans. So, I see the tariffs in this way. Re-booting an post-industrial economy and going back simply isn't realistic externally even if it sounds good on paper. It's the road to nowhere, well except perhaps mass bankruptcy.
Too bad I missed the convo.
Also, to be fair, they still large 10% tariffs - which is actually a huge change (the question is how this will affect policy and the economy). It's kind of how Frederick the Great still kept Silesia when all was said and done after the War of Austrian Succession.
Notice though, the “cost” isn’t being borne by the wealthiest; it is being borne by those who already have next to nothing.
https://open.substack.com/pub/drpippa/p/tariffs-the-american-mittelstand?r=1v43l2&utm_medium=ios
Great discussion as always, thank you!
One dynamic that you did not cover in detail, I thought, is Trump's confidence in his instincts. Several times he has been advised to be more pragmatic, but again and again he has been proven right (Access Hollywood tape, picking JD as VP pick and so on), and that explains why the bureaucrats around him are "incompetent". In a normal dictatorship, say like Putin, system that ensures everyone in the government prioritizes his rule over everything else, but Putin will still allow experts to run the government. In Trump's case, it looks like he not content with just power. He also seem to think he is uniquely capable of rolling out a detailed policy, which is why we saw the rollout of tariffs that we saw. A good next step for him would be to make a public statement that he has accomplished his personal goal, and going forward Scott Bressent will manage all trade negotiations and the rollout.
Trump's other saving grace might be his ability to adapt and pivot when things don't work out as intended. It'll be interesting to see what he doe now.